Do your demographics determine likelihood of divorce? - Marcia Mediation

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Divorce can happen at any age in adulthood – you just need to be married. But are some demographics more likely to separate than others? Are certain age groups more ‘at risk’ of divorce?

According to data from the Office for National Statistics, since the mid-20th century, the number of people choosing to get married in the UK has fallen, and the rate of divorce has risen tenfold.

Based on analysis of Census data, the ONS found that in 1961, 68% of people aged 16 and over in the UK were married, around two thirds of the adult population.

By 2011, this had fallen to 49% but the divorce rate had skyrocketed, partly due to divorce laws easing in England during the 50 years between (specifically in 1971 under the Divorce Reform Act 1969).

The state of divorce demographics in 2021

Ten years on, we’re coming out of a global pandemic and multiple economic and social lockdowns, so the landscape is uniquely challenging.

It’s likely to be some years before the full effect of COVID-19 filters through in terms of the divorce rate, but divorce mediators and solicitors have been bracing for impact as the economy has started to open back up.

Like the traditional surge in divorce applications after Christmas, it’s likely the post-pandemic period will also see a spike in separations, perhaps at a younger age than in previous years, due to younger couples and families who were forced to spend time together in lockdown.

Overall since the year 2000, divorce rates have fallen after being consistently high in the 1980s-90s, and this is partly explained by changing attitudes which have made it more socially acceptable for unmarried couples to cohabit long-term.

Divorce demographics in 2019

The most recent available ONS data covers 2019, before the pandemic hit, and that makes it a particularly useful snapshot to compare with in the future.

According to the Divorces in England and Wales: 2019 report, mixed-sex divorce surged 18.4% in a single year to 107,599 separations – a sign of the courts working to clear a backlog from 2018.

Same-sex divorces totalled 822, up from 428 in 2018, and 72% of these involved female couples.

The (median) average mixed-sex couple had been married for 12.3 years at their time of divorce, down slightly from 12.5 years in 2018.

Average age at divorce

Finally, let’s look at the average age of separating couples, according to gender.

ONS data shows that at divorce, individuals had the following (mean) average age:

  • Men in mixed-sex couples: 47.7 in 2019, 41.3 in 2000, 39.2 in 1963 (earliest available data)
  • Men in same-sex couples: 40.8 in 2019, 42.1 in 2015 (earliest available data)
  • Women in mixed-sex couples: 45.3 in 2019, 38.8 in 2000, 36.4 in 1963
  • Women in same-sex couples: 39.5 in 2019, 33.7 in 2015

This suggests that based on demographics alone, you’re more likely to divorce in your mid-40s from a mixed-sex marriage, or around the age of 40 in a same-sex couple.

Whatever your age or profile, divorce mediators are here to help you. We will not judge you based on your circumstances or characteristics: we are here for you.

If you would like to speak in confidence, contact Marcia Mediation today and we can help you through the divorce process and to look towards a brighter future.

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